Estimation of China's military aero-engine demand for superalloys in the next 5 years

Categories:Industry news
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Time of issue:2018-07-17
Views:693

(Summary description)Cic adviser in the 2018-2022 China high temperature alloy industry investment analysis and prospect forecast report, said in the aerospace field is the main application fields of high temperature alloy, high temperature alloy material is initially applied in aerospace field, after it was gradually applied to electric power industry, automobile industry, petroleum and petrochemical, glass material, and many other industries, among them, In particular, the demand for military industry.

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Estimation of China's military aero-engine demand for superalloys in the next 5 years

(Summary description)Cic adviser in the 2018-2022 China high temperature alloy industry investment analysis and prospect forecast report, said in the aerospace field is the main application fields of high temperature alloy, high temperature alloy material is initially applied in aerospace field, after it was gradually applied to electric power industry, automobile industry, petroleum and petrochemical, glass material, and many other industries, among them, In particular, the demand for military industry.

Categories:Industry news
Author:
Origin:
Time of issue:2018-07-17
Views:693

Cic adviser in the 2018-2022 China high temperature alloy industry investment analysis and prospect forecast report, said in the aerospace field is the main application fields of high temperature alloy, high temperature alloy material is initially applied in aerospace field, after it was gradually applied to electric power industry, automobile industry, petroleum and petrochemical, glass material, and many other industries, among them, In particular, the demand for military industry.

Next, the demand for superalloy for military aero engine is measured.

The basic assumptions are: the average life of an advanced aero-engine is about 3000 hours; The average training time of China's air force is more than 200 hours per year, and each engine is equipped with a backup engine. The ratio of the number of existing and new military aircraft with twin and single engines is 1:1. The weight of a single engine is 1.5 tons, the amount of superalloy is 50%, and the average yield of superalloy parts is 30%.

According to a World Air Force report, China had 2,955 military aircraft in 2016, ranking third behind the United States and Russia. The number of military aircraft in China in 2016 increased by 357 compared with that in 2011, which calculated a compound annual growth rate of 2.75%. If the compound annual growth rate is maintained, China is expected to add 1,484 military aircraft in the next 15 years. Based on the basic assumption that the ratio of single and double engines of existing and new military aircraft is 1:1, it is estimated that in the next 15 years, China will increase the number of military aircraft engines to 8,886, and increase the demand for superalloy raw materials to 22,215 tons.

Military advanced aero-engine is the "heart" of advanced fighter, and superalloy is the key raw material of advanced aero-engine. As Britain, the United States and the engine and superalloy power to our country to implement the arms embargo and export control, China can only import engines from Russia, Ukraine and other countries, domestic aircraft engine superalloy products are produced by themselves.

Therefore, we can estimate the proportion of superalloy imports for military aero-engine by estimating the proportion of domestic and imported aero-engine. The engines China needs to import from Russia are mainly third-generation fighter jets J-10 and H-6K. The J-10 is a single-engine medium fighter jet powered by Russian-made AL-31F engines. H-6K is a twin-engine tactical bomber powered by Russian-made D-30KP-2 engines. According to the statistics of World Air Force Report 2017, from 2011 to 2016, the number of J-10 fighter jets in China increased from 200 to 273, and the number of H-6K bombers increased from 120 to 190. Therefore, the number of outsourced engines in China from 2011 to 2016 is 213.

According to the data in the Investment Analysis and Prospect Forecast Report of China's Superalloy Industry 2018-2022 issued by CIC Consultant, the number of China's military aircraft increased by 357 from 2011 to 2016. The double engine is calculated as 1:1, and the total number of military engines increases to 537. Therefore, the number of imported engines accounts for 39.66% of the total number of engines, that is, about 40% of China's military aero-engine superalloy is dependent on imports, and the import substitution market has broad prospects.

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