Cic adviser in the 2018-2022 China high temperature alloy industry investment analysis and prospect forecast report, said in the aerospace field is the main application fields of high temperature alloy, high temperature alloy material is initially applied in aerospace field, after it was gradually applied to electric power industry, automobile industry, petroleum and petrochemical, glass material, and many other industries, among them, and especially in the military needs to give priority to.
Then the demand of high temperature alloy for military aviation engine was calculated.
The basic assumptions are as follows: the average life of an advanced aero engine is about 3000 hours; China's air force trains an average of more than 200 hours a year, and each engine is equipped with a backup engine. The proportion of existing and newly added military aircraft in the number of twin-engine and single-engine aircraft is 1:1. The weight of a single engine is 1.5 tons, the amount of high temperature alloy accounts for 50%, and the average rate of high temperature alloy parts is 30%.
China has 2,955 military aircraft in 2016, ranking third behind the United States and Russia in total, according to the world air force report. The number of military aircraft in China in 2016 increased by 357 compared with 2011, and the compound annual growth rate was calculated to be 2.75%. If the compound annual growth rate is maintained, China is expected to add 1,484 military aircraft in the next 15 years. Based on the basic assumption that the ratio of the number of existing and newly added military aircraft to the number of single and double aircraft is 1:1, it is estimated that China will add 8,886 new military aviation engines in the next 15 years, and increase the demand of high-temperature alloy raw materials by 22215 tons.
Military advanced aircraft engines are the "heart" of advanced aircraft, and high temperature alloys are the key raw materials for advanced aircraft engines. Due to the arms embargo and export control imposed by great powers of British, American and high temperature alloy engines, China can only import engine complete machines from Russia, Ukraine and other countries.
Therefore, we can calculate the import proportion of high temperature alloy for China's military aviation engines by estimating the proportion of domestic and imported aero-engines. The type of engines that China needs to import from Russia are mainly j-10 and h-6k fighters of the third generation. The j-10 is a single medium-size fighter with a russian-made al-31f engine. The h-6k is a two-engine tactical bomber with a Russian d-30kp-2 engine. According to the statistics of the world air force report 2017, from 2011 to 2016, China's j-10 fighter jets increased from 200 to 273, and h-6k bombers increased from 120 to 190. Therefore, China needs to purchase 213 engines from 2011 to 2016.
Cic advisory "2018-2022 China investment analysis and high temperature alloy industry outlook report points out that the data from 2011 to 2016 the increase in the number of 357 military aircraft in our country, according to the single, double 1:1 computing, to increase the number of military engine for 537 units, thus calculate the import engine number accounts for 39.66% of the total number of engine, namely the military aircraft engine about 40% dependence on imported high temperature alloy, import substitution wide prospect of market.